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I am glad for your optimism. Clearly you think long and hard about America and this is a reasoned judgment.

I’ve been wrong about a million things in my time, but I was certain there would be no red wave in 2022. It had an internal contraction that the Republicans could not bridge.

To qualify to win a *primary* in a competitive state, a candidate had to be what i call a gorilla. (S)he had to out-MAGA MAGA. Be Trumpier than Trump. Deny the 2020 election results. Only in that way would they get the base’s vote.

But that was a game with sharply diminishing returns. Once the primary was over, maintaining those positions left a candidate with an aspect that frightened reasonable human tendencies way. Witness Website scrubbing, “You misinterpreted what I said”, and non-denial denials that saturated the campaigns of the gorillas.

I couldn’t see how these candidates could win in large numbers. And they didn’t. No red wave.

Other random predictions I’ll bind myself to:

1.

Trump will not win the Republican candidacy for 2024.

2.

Warnock will demolish Walker (relatively speaking), winning by at least 4 points.

3.

The militias are done, as a potent force - for 10 years max.

4.

Biden has been a magnificent President. Period. Barring a crisis that emerges in 2024 and is long lasting and serious, he will not win another term. Age.

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