I am glad for your optimism. Clearly you think long and hard about America and this is a reasoned judgment.
I’ve been wrong about a million things in my time, but I was certain there would be no red wave in 2022. It had an internal contraction that the Republicans could not bridge.
To qualify to win a *primary* in a competitive state, a candidate had to be what i call a gorilla. (S)he had to out-MAGA MAGA. Be Trumpier than Trump. Deny the 2020 election results. Only in that way would they get the base’s vote.
But that was a game with sharply diminishing returns. Once the primary was over, maintaining those positions left a candidate with an aspect that frightened reasonable human tendencies way. Witness Website scrubbing, “You misinterpreted what I said”, and non-denial denials that saturated the campaigns of the gorillas.
I couldn’t see how these candidates could win in large numbers. And they didn’t. No red wave.
Other random predictions I’ll bind myself to:
1.
Trump will not win the Republican candidacy for 2024.
2.
Warnock will demolish Walker (relatively speaking), winning by at least 4 points.
3.
The militias are done, as a potent force - for 10 years max.
4.
Biden has been a magnificent President. Period. Barring a crisis that emerges in 2024 and is long lasting and serious, he will not win another term. Age.
I think we have a shot at sanity
I am glad for your optimism. Clearly you think long and hard about America and this is a reasoned judgment.
I’ve been wrong about a million things in my time, but I was certain there would be no red wave in 2022. It had an internal contraction that the Republicans could not bridge.
To qualify to win a *primary* in a competitive state, a candidate had to be what i call a gorilla. (S)he had to out-MAGA MAGA. Be Trumpier than Trump. Deny the 2020 election results. Only in that way would they get the base’s vote.
But that was a game with sharply diminishing returns. Once the primary was over, maintaining those positions left a candidate with an aspect that frightened reasonable human tendencies way. Witness Website scrubbing, “You misinterpreted what I said”, and non-denial denials that saturated the campaigns of the gorillas.
I couldn’t see how these candidates could win in large numbers. And they didn’t. No red wave.
Other random predictions I’ll bind myself to:
1.
Trump will not win the Republican candidacy for 2024.
2.
Warnock will demolish Walker (relatively speaking), winning by at least 4 points.
3.
The militias are done, as a potent force - for 10 years max.
4.
Biden has been a magnificent President. Period. Barring a crisis that emerges in 2024 and is long lasting and serious, he will not win another term. Age.